Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 4 hours ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 21 July 2026 at 19:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 2nd strongest of the 21 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 12 June 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 4 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Tornado Warning issued July 21 at 2:46PM EDT until July 21 at 3:15PM EDT by NWS Mount Holly NJ
Urban PEI: 209,589 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 12 June 2026
- June 12, 2026 · score 37 · 11.7 km
- July 29, 2026 · score 48 · 18.3 km
- August 11, 2026 · score 52 · 20.4 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 67 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Critical |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 67 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.80/1 |
| Coordinates | 41.3503, -74.5655 |
| Nearest City | Middletown (16 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 209.6K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | severe |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-21T18:46:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Tornado Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.93125efc804c339fac87d316fc3ecef0 |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-07-21T18:46:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-07-21T18:48:07.107Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Tornado Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Morris, NJ; Sullivan, NY |
| Headline | Tornado Warning issued July 21 at 2:46PM EDT until July 21 at 3:15PM EDT by NWS Mount Holly NJ |
| Expires | 2026-07-21T15:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Mount Holly NJ |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.93125efc804c339fac87d316fc3ecef04b3e3c70.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b6085a1551eb2a43134c1dbe66a780eaf6f4c6ec.002.1"] |
Safety Information
If a tornado warning is issued: go to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows. A vehicle and a mobile home are not shelter. Cover your head and neck. Wait for the official all-clear before going outside, and watch for downed power lines and gas leaks afterwards.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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